SpaceX vol portar els centres de dades d’IA a l’òrbita

All right, well, hello everybody and welcome. Hang now. I got a Elon and Eondal with our Sarlang team figured we'd check in. It's been a typical SpaceX year. I launched a brand new vehicle required XAI, now SpaceX AI, and now Satir, size, shit building project, and so. Yeah, never don't moment. Yeah, never don't moment, typically year. And so let's kind of wanted to connect some of the dots on how this all feeds into making life multi-planatory, starting to climb up the Carter Chef scale, maybe show off some cool new AI, sad stuff, it's kind of start galaxy size, and bring people in with the Carter Chef scale. What's the big picture? What's the big picture? What is the Carter Chef scale? Like, how do you decide what progress the civilization has made? That's the most objective metric that any alien species say visiting us. would calibrate how much progress we've made as a civilization. And one of the most subjective ways to do that is the amount of power that is yet. Any given civilization has been able to harness. And there was a Russian physicist actually, my name is Kauda-Shav, who we thought about this. And I think it's a good way to characterize it, which is You can have, you can, you can assess how well a civilization is harnessing the power available on the planet. That's type one. And then type two would be how much of the stars power are you harnessing? And then type three would be how much of the galaxies power are you harnessing? These are very objective and measurable numbers. So right now we're, very low on the codish of one scale. Like if you say like what proportion of our planets power are we honocing? It's a very, very tiny number. And basically we're honocing almost nothing of our stars power. So the sun is truly an immense thing. It is difficult with words too.

characterised just how immense the sun is. But this gives you sort of a sense of scale. It's a big difficulty jump going from level one to level two. Very big difficulty jump. Yes. And level three and we don't even know how to do level three. Really. Oh, yeah. Exactly. AI will figure it out. Yeah. One way to appreciate the size of the sun is to think about how heavy is the sun compared to all the rest of the mass in this whole system. So the sun is about 99.86% of all mass in the solar system. It's everything. And then all the remaining, you know, 0.14% most of that is Jupiter, one planet. So we're still a lightweight. Yes. The entire mass of Earth is in the tiny, miscellaneous category. We're like, Earth is a tiny dust mode compared to the sun. But how much energy are we talking? Like... coming from the sun, especially compared to what we're using here on Earth. It feels like the incident's whole energy on the cross-section of the Earth is roughly a half-billionth of the sun's power output. And the vast majority of that we cannot use because the 70% of Earth is water. We should technically apply an issue called water, because there is certainly no sense of water, and I think an alien civilization Visiting us would be like, why are they calling it Earth when it is mostly water? Where the Greenland is not green of the, of the, of the solar system. Yeah. A bunch of the, the, exactly. Even, we're 70% water and then, often 30% best land. A bunch of it is, you know, Antarctica or, you know, Siberia type of thing. Very Northern Canada type of thing. Very difficult to, not, not places people typically want to live and you're not going to get a lot of, solar power in the at the poles. So the actual usable area of land that where you can get solar power is quite small. In order to send the car to ship scale order, in order to get to any meaningful percentage of the sun's energy-honest, you have to go to space. If you wanted to get to say a million of the power output of the sun,

you would have to increase civilizational energy, honest, by much more than a million. So we currently use much less than a trillionth of the power of the sun. And a trillion is a million times a million. So basically, we're basically practically nowhere on the sort of the codish-of-two scale, practically nowhere. So on Carter-Sav scale, we're all still We're not registered. We're not registered. We're not even... We're not even registered. We're not registered. We're not registered. We're not registered. We're not registered. We're not registered. We're not registered. We're not registered. We're not registered. We're not registered. We're not registered. We're not registered. We're not registered. We're not registered. We're not registered. We're not registered. We're not registered. We're not registered. We're not registered. We're not registered. We're not registered. We're not registered. We're not registered. We're not registered. We're not registered. We're not registered. We're not registered. We're not registered. We're not registered. We're not registered. We're not registered. We're not registered. We're not registered. We're not registered. We're not registered. We're not registered. We're not registered. We're not registered. We're not registered. We're not registered. We're not registered. We're not an incredibly adventurous goal relative to where we are. And yet not particularly adventurous as a percentage of the science energy to try to achieve a power harness being one million of what the Sun outputs. And so to actually start a micro-soul. So to actually start getting there though, we're not just gonna throw a solar-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or-or- Obviously until this point in human history, like there hasn't really been a need, what has changed to make us think that like maybe now it's the time to start trying to notch a percentage point or two. I mean, getting to a percent of the Sun's energy. Even not a percent of the let's go, like, well, the decimal point back there. I see if we were extremely thick at civilization if you get to 1% of the Sun's energy and I'm like, wow, that civilization is going to be vastly more powerful than us to say the least. Yeah. So in order to start to make some progress on the College of Scale, we need to launch satellites to orbit Earth and capture solar power. And that aboard the needs to build massive power plants on Earth and deal with cooling because cooling is actually much easier in space than it is on Earth. You can just radiate to the vacuum.

And so what we're proposing here and what we intend to do is to try to plan the Cardi-Shav scale to kind of like a respectable civilization. So when the aliens, hopefully they're aliens out there, and they may be finally decided to talk to us, you know, where we have some respectable amount of the Sun's energy being used. That's not totally pathetic. Which is the current situation. And so before we start sending data centers, sending all of this to space, there are some limiting factors that we got to get there that would traditionally make it so like this is almost impossible. Yeah, what does it take to scale? Yeah. So things that takes to scale are you need to have a large mast to over capability, which is what Starship will give us. That large mast. So. You know, you ultimately need to send millions of tons to orbit and beyond. And you need to be power associated with that. So if you want to put a hundred gigabytes or ultimately a tower watt into space from Earth, you'll need, if you will at some point need a tower watt of solar. And then you're going to need a tower watt of AI chips. So the three things on you need a mass orbit, a lot of solar power and radiators of course and a lot of ships. All right, well, let's start taking down the list. So, Master orbit, that's where Starship comes in. Yeah. We just had first flight to V3, I saw some, I know you were there. It was crazy to see that rocket launch. Yeah. And like the long time coming, what's kind of, what Starship's kind of purpose of being, what is it going to be doing? Yeah. So, Starship is going to, it's going to revolutionize space really. It's, um, It's the first rocket design that is capable of full and rapid reusability. Now, reusability is the fundamental breakthrough that is necessary to make life multifonatory as well as to ascend the Carter Chef's Tale. You simply cannot descend the Carter Chef's Tale unless you have reusable spacecraft and you cannot extend life to the moon, tomorrow's and rest the solar system without a reusable rocket. The cost is simply prohibitive. You can't make enough rockets.

Unless you fly at them. Just like any other mode of transport, you can imagine that if we had to throw away airplanes every time we flew, flying would be far too expensive and basically no one would be flying airplanes. You do in a whole lot more driving. We're happy to use the ability. Every mode of transport is reusable without which is simply not viable as a transport system. So cars, planes, boats. forces, bicycles, or all obviously reusable. With rockets, it's much harder to make a rocket reusable because Earth has a deep gravity well and a thick atmosphere. And these make it just barely possible to achieve reusableity with a rocket. And there have been, in many prior attempts to create a full reusable rocket. And they, most of those attempts have been abandoned, pot-way through because they, they didn't think they could succeed. In order to achieve full reusability, everything's got to be perfect. This is the engines, the structure, the avionics, the choice of propellants. If you've got to go to extreme measures for mass optimization, which is why we have the tower catch the rocket instead of putting on landing legs, which are heavy, the rocket can simply be caught by the tower. And we haven't achieved full reusability yet, but we do expect to achieve that. hopefully later this year with Starship and then you've got a sheet full-release building they've also if you're going to step beyond that which is make it rapidly reusable such that the rocket lands, the good good coat by the top, is put back on the launch stand and can be flown again without any refurbishment or laborious inspection like an aircraft. This is incredibly difficult. This is the first time that there's ever been a rocket where that is possible. That's what makes Starship so profound. It also happens to be the largest flying object ever made. Heavy as playing object ever made. The most powerful moving object of any kind is the Starship B3 is more than double the thrust of the Saturn V moon rocket. By version 4 we'll be pretty much three times the thrust of the Saturn V moon rocket. And we expect this to be a fixed Starship to be flying more than once per hour down the road.

One of the fun facts from flight 12, that was actually the heaviest payload space access ever flown, and that's still just a fraction of what V3 can do. So, I mean, once we're flying massive amounts really rapidly, I mean, we already fly the majority of payload space with Falcon, people even really understand what mass orbit becomes one starship is flying. greater than what is the case today. So even with Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, SpaceX, levers almost 90% of all Earth Master orbit. I think it's somewhere between 85 and 90% right now. And then most of the remaining NASA, I think is launched by China and then the rest of the world, including the rest of the US, is remaining, I don't know, 5% to 7%. Now with Starship, We'll be aiming to go from somewhere around 2500 tons a year to orbit to millions of tons, for year to orbit. And to do so, it a pretty short period of time. So we think probably we can get to a million tons to orbit per year in about three years, they're about. Star ship is going to take care of the mast orbit. limiting factor. And then power generation. So first, in the end, maybe you can help people probably struggle to visualize a little bit when you say like data center in space. Like we're not going to slap engines on a building and fly it up there. Like these actually look like pretty different. And so kind of walk through how you take something that's in a giant building on the ground and turn it into something that's functional in space. Yeah, I think it's pretty interesting. A lot of people don't actually know what the inside of a data center even looks like, right? And some of it's like a mythical place where the internet's in the cloud. People in vision wires, some people in vision boxes, but like it actually comes down to a set number of chips and the things that we need to launch into space are actually quite small when we look at it. The more challenging part is figuring out how to get the power for it. And that's where

a lot of what we've worked on for existing like Starwing technology, this solar race, are what we want and utilize that expertise to be able to build a satellite that can actually launch the critical components of the data center into space itself. We like to look at this and say like what is the actual engineering problem here and it's really a combination of delivering power and then taking the waste heat and energy away and sending it into the back of the space, as you mentioned. Yeah. Now, the AI satellite is actually much simpler than a Starlink satellite. A Starlink satellite has gigantic phasery antennas. It's got power ballic antennas. It's got a lot of laser links. It's it's much more complicated than an AI satellite and AI satellite is essentially a lot of Solar cells Radiator and you still need some laser links, but you don't have one of the super complex antennas that you have on a Sonic satellite. So I mean given the two the easier one to design for is the the AI satellite. Yeah, it's just a little bit bigger. It's bigger. Just makes up bigger. Yeah, I was like so we've got This is our AI one if you guys want to walk us through. Yeah, so the first thing that we're really looking at here is like first you've got to make something compelling right and and we thought that the right place to start is around the 150 kilowatt like peak power level But as we look at the workloads with with our experience with XAI We get to actually see that that we can also support about 120 kilowatt's of average compute. There's a difference. Yes What we're showing here is kind of a graph version of the version one of the space XA I had like an AI one I guess we call it. And seems like a reasonable place to start is 150 kilowatt speed power, 120 kilowatt sustain power. And to give you a sense of what does that actually look like in terms of the size of the radiators, size of the solar panels. The assumptions here are

250 watts per square meter for the solar array and about 1400 watts per square meter for the radiators. So the radiators, this is double sided. Great radiators are radiating both sides. They're oriented knife edge to the sun and it's 1400 watts per square meter is a very achievable goal. Over time we think we can probably do about 250 watts per square meter and about 1400 watts per square meter for the solar panels radiators respectively. But this gives you like a, be it, it's pretty much what the satellites gonna look like. Yeah. It's a lot of solar panels radiator and then everything else is pretty small, like a virus. And these are like evolutions of things that we have actually already launched in our Starlink constellation to date. Yeah. That's really, I think the cool part to me is that we're looking at solar technology that we already are going to use on the V3 Starlink vehicle. So I'm really excited to then just take those and make it bigger. Yeah, part of what we want for you to convey here is that there's not some magic that doesn't exist or AI satellites. As you said, this is a lot of this is technology we've already made for the Starlink B3 satellites. So it's, we don't think this is a, is super hard problem compared to things we already do. There would also be something on the water of a tarabot of connectivity, of laser link connectivity from the satellite. The 150 kilowatt peak power level is roughly matches what say an Nvidia GB 300 rack would do. So GB 300 was 72 GPUs. It's peak power, I think it's around 140 kilowatt. But it's rarely, it's almost impossible to get it to be at that P power. A more reasonable operating envelope would be around 120 kilowatts average power. But it can peak up to 150. So that's basically, think about as a rack of compute in space. And then you can connect these racks of compute to either each other by the list links or directly to

the installing constellations. So you can close the link with the starting constellation and then the starting can then send that data to the ground using the existing CA and CAU antennas on the vehicle. It also has laser links to the ground as well. And this would not be out of particularly high latency. We're talking about where you're being around. six to 800 kilometers above the oath and light travels 300 kilometers per millisecond. So that's about, you know, three milliseconds away, obviously. It's not very far. Well, worry about that too much. It's not, if something has to be a word, I think there's going to be some like high latency. I'm like, yeah. No, speed of light moves pretty fast. Light moves pretty fast at the time. Yeah. Yeah. I think the cool thing also is the readers themselves are about the same size as the existing solar race for the V3 vehicle. Kind of in that realm where we're flying today. Yeah. So I mean, they got about a 70-meter wingspan. So these are fairly large. We're talking about building a lot of them and putting them up there. But you like to say spaces in the name, there's a lot of space up there. And so even when you're talking, thousand or even you know up to a million satellites. Yeah, you got plenty of room to move around up there. Yeah, space is really big. So it's not like it's not like space is going to get crowded. Space is it is enormous. Like if you zoom in close to satellite it looks big. But if you actually look at it relative relative to earth, these satellites are so tiny you can't even see them. So they're very, very tiny compared to earth. And I mean we have 10, 10,000 starlings in orbit right now. We've got a pretty good idea of how to operate just really large constellations and do it safely now, right? We are the only operator that has any experience of that scale. It's a great thing that we have this background. So we know how tightly we can pack the satellites and fly them safely. That's a number one goal when we look at the constellation. We're going to be building a lot of satellites and we're going to be building a

here in Bass Drop, right? So we've got this, which, yeah. So we're in a building kind of in the middle, which we're sitting in that building right now. This is my first time here, the building is massive. Like you come around the corner. You see it through the trees, you know, like, oh, wow. But we're about to kind of put this building to shame, aren't we? Ah, yes, we're gonna, but if I could already have the solo manufacturing facility, it's not like construction already. And then we will be building out the AIS app production building soon. And yeah, so expect to have the AIS app production, the soul production, and all of that operating app. So some reasonable volume by the end of next year. So if anybody wants to work on a AIS satellite, this is kind of going to become the hub of that. We're also, so I mean, like right behind us, the machines are humming. We're still making all of our user terminals for Starlink here. That's not going anywhere. In fact, we're turning on new production lines for new units, right? Yes. In fact, these are the new Stonic terminals, which we made in much higher volume than the current terminals. You know, I'll suddenly think it's probably going to be a few hundred million Stonic terminals out there. And then the Stonic Direct-A-Sale constellation will connected to people's cell phones and unable to hide that with communication directly from your phone to space. We're two limiting factors down. We've got master orbit. We've got putting solar and a few third ones chips. Yes. So, at least in the beginning, we can obviously launch the chips that are already being made. So, our current reference design is for in-bedia. Ruben chips or could be either GB300 or Ruben chips and we'll also have a reference design for TPUs and essentially you can put up any existing chips into it to orbit. But the current industry seems to be, it seems like it's going to get to maybe around 100 gigawatts a year.

of AI compute, but that doesn't answer the question of how do you get to a terror what? That's why you need the terror fab. Always looking at step bigger. Yeah. In order to get to the next order of magnitude, you need a gigantic show of factory. To give you a sense of scale here, we expect that the terror fab is going to be around 100 million square feet, which is 10 times the size of the, uh, it has the, getting factory Texas. And what aside from just, you know, I'm going to need Starship point to point together one end to the other aside from just the size what's going to make this unique different from any other chip building operation on the planet. Well, I think over time there's going to be a lot of technology evolution with the tariffab, but fundamentally it's about scale. So even if there were no, uh, fundamental technology breakthroughs. And you simply, you could simply scale the existing chip making of technology with a lot of difficulty to a terrot, a chip output, per year. That's, if you're looking at just from the logic, that I stand point. That's like having a billion chips per year with a kilowatt per year. So a billion full radical chip. each doing a kilowatt and then you're going to need a lot of memory to go with that. A lot of people today have been saying oral data centers were like a decade away. Yeah, I think we want to try to get people a sense of the timeframe. At least the timeframe we're aiming for. People should take this with a grain of salt to sun degree because this is just our best guess. This is not a promise of what we'll do. What we are going to try to do and think we probably can do, which is to get to roughly an annualized rate of a gigawak per year by the end of next year in terms of space, AI compute. And then, aspirationally, scale that by an order of magnitude per year. So in two and a half years, hitting an annualized rate, a 10 gigawak to your space, and three and a half years, maybe a hundred gigawatts. And then depending upon

or progress, there is in chipmaking in the rest of the world and with the tariff fab going beyond that to scale to a tariff work per year, which is a thousand gigabytes. And I'm just, that's why I see the electricity consumption in the United States. I think it will be an appetite for that, but we'll see. It's a lot of satellites. I don't know what I'm going to think about, but review a lot of simulations and stuff like that. So after we, you know, Work it through all the limiting factors. We've kind of topped out where we can do on Earth. What is the next step to again, try and actually notch maybe some percentage points towards becoming Carter Shav's level too? Why stop there? Why think small? Because the terror what actually is very small. I don't think small. That's not big small. So there is an order to get to another three or two magnitude to thousandx from a terroak per year. The only way that we can really see that you can achieve that is on the moon with a mass driver. Essentially, where you do local production of photovoltaics and radiators on the moon, maybe you bring the chips from Earth or you could conceivably make the chips on the moon. But you need most of the mass to be made on the moon so you don't have to transport it to the moon from Earth. And then, because the moon has no atmosphere and only one-sixth Earth's gravity, you can accelerate the AI satellites into deep space without a rocket. So you can basically shoot them into space using an electromagnetic gun, like a rail gun type. I mean, just basically, the linear electric motor is the way to think about it. I think we can show people. If that doesn't get you excited for the future, I don't really know what will. I'm fired up to see a master I run the moon. Every very cool. Yeah. It's a sci-fi future. Yeah. Yeah. It would also mean that if we're bringing that amount of mass to the moon, it would mean that anyone who wants to go to the moon will be able to go to the moon. And I think that'll be pretty cool. Yeah. And I'm going to be jumping first and lying to get up there. Yeah. I mean.

and everyone should get a number of least ones for that. Yeah, just ones. Yeah. You can move there if you want. Go live on the moon. I see. Thanks guys for chatting with me for a little bit. All right. We decided to see a whole new type. A whole new kind of satellite. A bunch more starship launches, more chips, more solar, more everything. It's a big future, but I'm excited to see everybody at this company go out and build. All right? Sounds good? It's exciting. Very exciting.